Is Tynan Lawrence’s Slow Start at BU a Red Flag for NHL Scouts? But here's where it gets controversial... The 2026 NHL Draft is heating up, and with my midseason rankings now live (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6958368/2026/01/20/nhl-draft-2026-prospects-ranking-stenberg-mckenna/), it’s time to dive into your burning questions. From Tynan Lawrence’s BU debut to Olympic prospects and the Malhotra vs. Desnoyers debate, let’s unpack it all.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity. Similar queries are grouped. Missed your question? Check out the rest of the answers here (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6989576/2026/01/21/nhl-draft-2026-questions-scott-wheeler-mailbag/).
Tynan Lawrence’s BU Start: Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
Asked by Aavcocup A. and John M.
This is the million-dollar question—and the hottest topic in this draft class. Let’s break it down.
First, the numbers: In 5 games at BU, Lawrence has 0 goals, 0 assists, 5 shots on goal, a -2 rating, and averages 15:55 of ice time per game. According to InStat (our scouting service), he’s added 11 shot attempts, 2 hits, 2 slot passes, and a 49% faceoff win rate, with nearly 2.5 minutes per game on the power play. His opponents? Harvard, UMass (twice), and UMass-Lowell (twice)—teams ranked 20th, 28th, and 49th in the NCAA’s new NPI index. Oh, and he’s the second-youngest player in college hockey, born just 10 days after Oscar Hemming.
The Optimist’s View:
Lawrence is being eased into a new city, team, system, and linemates midseason—all while juggling school. At just 17, he deserves some grace. Remember, he dominated the USHL, a notoriously tough league for scoring, for over a year.
The Pessimist’s View:
He’s generating little at 5-on-5 and on the power play, and his competition hasn’t exactly been elite. Compare him to Hemming (2 points, 8 shots in 4 games at BC) or Will Horcoff (10 points in 18 games at Michigan last year), both of whom made midseason jumps and outperformed him.
The Reality:
It’s somewhere in the middle. Lawrence is a premium prospect with pro-level attributes, but he hasn’t looked like a first-overall contender yet. His offensive ceiling was already questioned, and this slow start isn’t helping. If he steps up, he’ll earn the benefit of the doubt. But NHL teams will be asking questions—especially after his unconventional draft year. Why did he leave Muskegon after just 13 games as captain? What’s his true potential?
And this is the part most people miss... Lawrence could’ve played in the QMJHL this year, where his stock might’ve soared. Instead, he chose the USHL, then left abruptly. It’s a narrative NHL teams will dissect.
Olympic Prospects to Watch: Who’s Elevating Their Stock?
Asked by Cedric S. and Rowen B.
The Olympics are a spotlight moment for young players. Here’s who I’m watching:
- Slovakia: G Adam Gajan (Blackhawks), F Dalibor Dvorsky (Blues)
- Italy: G Damian Clara (Ducks)
- Latvia: D Alberts Smits (2026), F Dans Locmelis (Bruins), F Sandis Vilmanis (Panthers)
- Denmark: F Oscar Fisker Molgaard (Kraken)
Alberts Smits is the standout. A strong showing against NHLers could solidify him as a top-five pick. Remember Moritz Seider in 2019 or Juraj Slafkovský in 2022? International play can be a game-changer.
Caleb Malhotra vs. Caleb Desnoyers: Who’s the Better Prospect?
Asked by Reed L.
Both are 6’1”, 180-pound centers with leadership and two-way prowess. But there are key differences.
Desnoyers entered his draft year as a top-10 prospect, with a QMJHL All-Rookie Team nod and gold at U18 Worlds. Malhotra wasn’t in that conversation initially, but he’s playing at a 102-point pace this season. If Brantford wins the OHL title, he could soar up draft boards—maybe even into Desnoyers’ territory.
The Changing Development Landscape: How Does It Impact Scouting?
Asked by Michael F.
College eligibility changes have shifted the landscape. I’ve still watched plenty of USHL (Muskegon, Youngstown, Des Moines, Green Bay), but Tier 2 leagues like the BCHL are fading from view. NHL Central Scouting’s midseason list reflects this—BCHL players are nearly absent.
Draft Position Breakdown: Where’s the Depth?
Asked by Patrick S.
Wings and defensemen dominate this draft. My top 17 includes just 3 centers (Lawrence, Malhotra, Bjorck), 7 wingers, and 7 defensemen. Goalies? This is a weak class—I don’t have one in my top 64.
Under-the-Radar Players to Watch
Asked by Doug J.
Keep an eye on Tri-City’s Jakub Vanecek (D) and Ottawa’s Thomas Vandenberg (C). Both were close to making my list and could outpace some ranked prospects.
Small Defensemen: Where Will They Land?
Asked by Austin S.
Ryan Lin should be in Denton Mateychuk’s range (12th), but he could slip. Axel Elofsson is likely a third-rounder, while Xavier Villeneuve is a wild card. Moncton’s Tommy Bleyl is another name to watch—his stock is rising fast.
First-Round Steals: Who Could Fall?
Asked by Andreas S.
If Lin, Bjorck, or Villeneuve are available in the second half of the first round, grab them. Marcus Nordmark and Nikita Klepov are also underrated talents.
Tiering Hockey Leagues Outside the NHL
Asked by Anthony S. and Brendan S.
Tier 1: KHL, SHL, AHL (closely matched, with the KHL losing its edge post-Ukraine war).
Tier 2: NL, Liiga, DEL, Czech Extraliga (DEL is rising).
Tier 3: HockeyAllsvenskan, ECHL, Slovak Extraliga, VHL, EIHL, EBEL, etc.
Is This Draft Weaker Than Expected?
Asked by Rick A.
It’s exactly what I expected—average to below-average. Last year’s top five (Schaefer, Stenberg, McKenna, Misa, Frondell) still outshine this year’s projected top five (McKenna, Stenberg, Verhoeff, Lawrence, Reid).
Final Thoughts:
This draft is full of intrigue, from Lawrence’s BU start to the Olympic stage. Who do you think will rise—or fall? Let’s debate in the comments!
